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Chaosis
Silver Member

3819 Messages

Good morning and qelcome to a new series. First up global cues. The S& P is now hitting crucial levels...with a confluence of resistance levels at 4020 to 4110 range...any indecisiveness here is vulnerable for a sell of closong above 4110 will give comfort to bulls. The Vix is near 20 and everytime it has hit 20 thr mkt has reversed dramatically. the knoy two positive cues for thr global rally...the dollar just not breaking out into a rally and then the fact tht everybody is expecting a rally towards the end of the yr...who knows what surprise is in store...but my sources tell me that there are enuf bears waiting at the 4110 level to hit it down and even more waiting to pile on once 4000 is broken on close. Regarding us, i see two things probably panning out here...Obscenely high percentge of longs and low Vix is a dangerous combo...so watch out. IT has been notoriously absent...so It might be a case of aector rotation whilst banknifry cools down a bit and IT takes over...as a bear I am still optimistic. but cautious...as i said, this rally is purely sentiment driven, and you can never predict when or wht chnges the sentiment, but one thing is for sure...pure maths dictates thst the farther away from fair value you go in a sentiment driven rally ( or fall) the better the odds of a contrarion trade playing out. So yes, while puts are cheap, there is a reason for it. My recomm, if you have just bought a put the last couple of days like i did...do not add now, wait for the 19k question to be put across...and then take a call ( pardon the pun) on averaging.

8.13 AM Nov 25th
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