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Idea Cellular

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Thank you Ironman, vedsin, sandpm for warm reception. One thing I stress - VIL is not going anywhere, A country like the UK with a population of 60 million using a single SIM has got 4 major players and another 6 MVNO operators. Imagine the potential of India. VIL is a MUST need for India. It will capture either top slot if not second in Indian telecom sector over the next 4-5 years. I am writing this with clear technical understanding within the Telecom space. Balance sheet will change every quarter but technology will last for a minimum half a decade. Everyone is thinking MA and DOT via AGR issue is trying to create hurdles for VIL, but it is the other way around. VIL will not give up their valuable investment and will get every penny as ROI. I will split my message in 2 parts Part 1: VIL and Airtel projecting themselves as not able to pay the AGR dues and requesting staggered payment implies they are not ready for 5G Auction any time next year. This option gives them cash flow to get ready for the 5G spectrum along with fund infusion. Govt. has planned for 5G spectrum (3300-3600 Mhz Band first) costs 9000- 10,000Cr which is very high as per global standards. Moreover this band is not as effective as 700-800 Mhz(This will be the second/third phase of 5G auction ) band which has wider coverage and deep indoor penetration. VIL will be aggressive during the 700-800 Mhz Auction, and will take a back seat during initial 3300-3600 Mhz auction. DOT will not go for a 5G auction without enough participants and allocate spectrum to JIO at cheaper rates. This will be a pain in the neck to the Government as opposition will portray this another 2G (5G) scandal. DOT has no option other than cleaning this AGR mess and setting floor price.

6.55 PM Jul 16th
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