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Platinum Member
Reposted about 1053 days 10 hrs 55 min 3 sec ago by lakshmanasamy

Sensex : 15727.85
Nifty : 4705.80

Astrological View about the market for next 30-40 Days..

I was checking astrological aspect about Stock market...
next 30-40 days ---

whatever ups and down , Market will remain almost at same level after 30-40 days..... Heavy fall or heavy rise may not sustain for a longer time...

Even majot rise or fall may not survive. Nifty will close around same level within next 30-40 days......50 Points here and there may be possible.....

I can conclude that -

Selling at Ups and buying at fall would be the wise strategy.

Trading in a stages , keeping place for averaging and / or holding in case of loss may be wise strategy... Barring few exceptions, and few stocks ,Rest of the stocks and market may swing only...... Hope all knowss what swing denotes...

This is only astrological view for next 30-40 days.....

11.58 PM Dec 28th 2011   |         |  Rated by
Platinum Member
My Dear Sharmajee

Let me first wish you and all your family members a happy new year 2012. May god bless and bring health, happiness and prosperity in this coming year 2012.

As a said earliest yesterday has gone to history, now 2011 has gone to history and burried. Let the devil rest peacefully forever inside the coffin. The after effects of its devastation may remain in the market for some more time.

This devil has proved all our calculation and ratios are fit to be in the books. The sell trigger and buy stop loss is the common word used by our new friends who just enterd the stock market. I think this tribe will maket more lively in coming days.

This year some good decision will be taken by l & t and this may take shape during feb and march. I think the vitality may slow down and there is every chance of moving further.
Some one told me all the old directors have sold the shares offered to them. This will not make any dent in lnt working finance. They have very good reserve which may give room for issue of bonus rather than dividend. The bonus is converting surplus to capital where as given dividend is an expenditure to the company.

I think those who have accumulated lnt shares at low level will try to play safe and retain price.

You can see when person is happy ( with wealth ) he be more cautious and god fearing person .

I pray god to provide good health to me and all my friends in this lnt family.

10.54 PM Dec 31st 2011   |         |  Rated by
Gold Member
Danielji: I agree on all the points that you mentioned. But still I will contradict the end view.

Let us bear in mind that in all Metros, Tier I & II cities, there are plenty of new hotel chains like Marriott, Hilton, etc coming up. They are setting up hotels to address various categories. Even after considering the tourist growth, Indian hotel groups are going to have serious competition. They will be under tremendous margin stress as the biggies will offer much bigger discounts to cement their position and capture fair market share.

For traders the stock might be ok. For investors - I am afraid not.
8.13 PM Dec 31st 2011   |         |  Rated by
Platinum Member
Sorry to bother you guys with investment ideas on the last day of the year.

I am off to a midnight party now; buggers charge ten grand for a couple- free drinks though.

Have a nice time and once more wishing all a Happy New Investing and Money Making Year!!
7.51 PM Dec 31st 2011
Platinum Member

Even i was skeptical about investing in hospitality sector; half the rooms are always empty.

But what makes it a strong buy is
1. I still remember reading in 2007 where all the 3-5 star hotels in all the metros were full. There was an influx of businessmen running to India to make deals and there were no rooms to accomodate the poor white men in star hotels.
2. Jim Rogers the commodity nut doesn`t like India as a place to invest; he says that if given only one place to visit in a lifetime where would he go? His reply was India.
3. Capt Gopinath in his ghost written autobiography mentions why INdia is a preferred tourist destination- she has wildlife which Europe and America doesn`t have; architecture of repute and deep history which Africa doesn`t have; birth place of three religions- India is steeped in history.
4. Concept of weekend holidays is fast catching up in India; earlier only yuppie corporates from West used to do that. Now our young business boys take weekend holidays too.
5.Money will come back to India, west will invest in India, they will send their men to make deals here. Here in Blore, quite a few corporate offices are located in 5 star hotels.

But I don`t like hospitals and hospitality as a sector because you need to invest a lot, keep pleasing people, give high pay for people working for you, and there is a limit to how much you can charge your customers.
7.47 PM Dec 31st 2011
Platinum Member
I read a Forbes article by the value investor Sanjoy Bhattacharya where he suggested if I had to choose one name in the hospitality sector it would be Taj GVK.

No vested interest; not keen on investing in hotels; just for you to ponder.
7.35 PM Dec 31st 2011
Gold Member
You must be right. But this industry is highly seasonal - The summer time lean season will start April onward again. If for some reason there be travel advisory against India, they will take a hit. The view can change every quarter and that`s why I do not trade in seasonal stocks.

My rule is that - whichever stock does not have liquid options - one can not hedge the underlying effectively and better to stay away.
6.56 PM Dec 31st 2011
Platinum Member

Yes, my positions are risky. Stock market tends to look at future earnings and it would have already discounted the current quarter. In any case business travellers don`t book in advance and they are likely to form the bulk of Indian Hotels` clientele.

Two days ago the restaurants in Fort Kochi were so filled with foreigners that we could not even get dinner and had to do with omelette and toast! Such a crowd was unprecedented. I guess this is the story all over India. The news is that hotels are generally full up.

6.39 PM Dec 31st 2011
Gold Member

The Dec quarter had seen events like formula-1 etc. which would have had positive impact on their revenue. But I am not so sure about the margin as most of those bookings would have been made quite some time back when rupee was around 45/46. I think Dec quarter`s rupee depreciation will be realized in March quarter only for the same advance booking concept. So there may be some more downside left.

I have little knowledge about hotel industry and therefore, as per my trading policy I do not trade in Hotel stocks.

You must have much better insights to open two lots unhedged positions in future. I just gave my contra view but I guess you must have already factored that.

Best Wishes!
5.22 PM Dec 31st 2011
Platinum Member
Shows the importance of palm reading astrology etc!

By the way, another abstract I edited just now was the high prevalence of phyician burnout. This was the worst among house surgeons while consultants had the least. I guess they work less and less as they gain seniority.

That reminds me of a cartoon. Two psychiatrists are coming out their hospital in the evening, a young one and an old one. The old psychiatrist looks hale and hearty, while the young one looks completely exhausted.

The caption read thus:
Junior psychiatrist: "How can you remain so happy after listening to all those people for the whole day?"
Senior psychiatrist: "Who listens?!"

I guess that`s it. Wish you a happy new year!


2.48 PM Dec 31st 2011   |         |  Rated by
Platinum Member
Dear Daniel jee,

Very appealing as also informative.

Daniel jee, the core point which we need to keep in our mind is that, investment is similar to sowing a seed and giving it the minimium of time to sprout. Can the so called seed turn into a plant overnight ? It cannot. Also, on the other hand, it is not always possible that once you plant a saplings,for sure,it would turn into a true. Once the so called sapling is planted, it has to undergo worst of weather/s and unfriendly climatic conditions which may not allot it to turn into a fully grown up plant/tree. In both the case, we need to to rear the seed or saplings proper care for its safety and growth.

Unfortunately, in our bid to expect immediately return on our investment, we attempt resorting to short - cut. We give scant attention to the so called principle of being friendlier to "patience" and more often than not, once the so called stock does not make smooth moves contrary to our expectations because of peculiar and prevailing market conditions (as we witness today), we abandon it half - way in a hush/hurry. Once proper home work was done and invested was made in a smarter/matured way, where is the harm in not giving it time ? except under very exceptional case where you may need the capital for some unavoidable reasons. I firmly believe rather advocate that :

A. We make our investment only after due diligence and taking all factors in mind.

B. Give patience its due and rightful place which it deserves when it comes to intelligent investment.

C. Discipline ourselves and not exit a stock in a hurry so long as we take it for sure that, the so called investment was made exercising due care and concern and there are not going to be any kind of pitfall. And stick our guns than losing our money.

D. In the worst case scenario, if at all find that the called stock is going to turn into a kind of "bad investment" owing to company/stock being not good or market is not going to be too supportive, exist the same with the minimum acceptable loss than losing all the money. Perhaps, most often than not, we do fault on this culture too which need to be kept in mind always when it comes to safe investment.

To cap it all, I would like to add that, making investment is much easier than really servicing it with care and subsequently deriving gains out of it. Majority of us either lose the money or leave even the best of counter/stock in a hurry and regretting later.

My personal views please. Am sorry, due to paucity of time, I could not be bit more elaborative. I firmly believe, you and other boarders will bear with me.

With regards,

Tilak R Sharma
31st Dec 2011
1.47 PM Dec 31st 2011   |         |  Rated by
Platinum Member

We have various ways of assessing people for their intelligence, character, personality using IQ tests, EQ tests, aptitude tests so on and so forth.

I think market behavior should be included as one of the methods to assess one`s character.

Because I feel you can judge various attributes like patience, intelligence, self- control, decision making ability, reaction to sudden changes in circumstances and fortunes, ability to delay self-gratification by observing your how you invest.

A bear market tests all these. It would be fun considering a scenario where in a job interview you can tell your interviewers that you are intelligent, have great character and personality and is suitable for the job because you made money in a long grinding bear market!!

That was on a funny note. Thanks for the wishes!
1.16 PM Dec 31st 2011   |         |  Rated by
Platinum Member

I agree with you, the chocolate and depression link sound hilarious. Chocolate benefits are accounted by the amount of cocoa; the cadburys and hersheys we eat hardly has any cocoa and more of milk, fat, sugar. It is just the feel good effect of high sugar and not the cocoa benefits actually. Real chocolate is dark and bitter; I hardly find anybody enjoying dark chocolates.

Though it may seem silly, simple things which sound ridiculous has great significance in medicine. A colleague of mine was given the topic "Ear creases and incidence of earlier heart diseases in adults" as his thesis. Sounds ridiculous but there is a lot of medical literature showing the same.

Another friend of mine had the thesis "The pattern of palm creases and risk of diabetes"
Can you believe, the pattern of the lines in your hand can predict your risk of diabetes?

Sounds ridiculous but somewhere along the way we find correlations.
1.01 PM Dec 31st 2011
Platinum Member
Dear UM jee,

Very interesting besides being timely.

You see, FII have always been for safe heaven and they do not care for any specific country/region. Wherever they find the attractive valuations they change their postures. Now, they find US to be on their radar unlike recently. In the meanwhile, retail invest is left to shiver so terribly. I believe, much more than other sectors, CG is the biggest victim. But, I know, once the revival in the economy takes place, across the globe, this sector will be the first to give all the three years for good reasons and shall continue providing one, for quite some time ; it being basically a infra related story which continue to hold the key for over all development.

Tilak R Sharma
31st Dec 2011
10.25 AM Dec 31st 2011
Platinum Member
Dear Daniel jee,

Kindly forgive me. My very good wishes to you for 2012. May God bless you and your family with all the cheers and wonderful return on your investment. Also, all the endeavours that you undertake bear good results.

Tilak R Sharma
31st Dec 2011
10.14 AM Dec 31st 2011
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