"Hum jahan khade hote hai line wahi se shuru hoti hai".Wondering Why I Said this line.
Our Mkt has hardly moved 100+ Points after Commodity crash.With so much improvement in Macros and expectation of rate cut,the Nifty has min 10% upside and Max of 20% from here ,which will life time high.Commodity Crash and Rate cut will increase Margins of companies.FY14 will be one of the best result year as we come out of 4 yrs of margin contraction.Its just a lack of Confidence and Sentiment in Mkt. Generally Retail investor Confidence and Sentiment comes back when Mkt has already hit life time high and as usual Missed the BUS. Finanlly Be first in investing and say the first line.
These are assumption,so take your own decision on investment
LONDON--Imports of goods into the 17 nations that use the euro fell in February and exports stagnated, the latest indication of poor consumer and business demand within and without the crisis-hit currency bloc that could prevent its economy from rebounding this year.
Trade figures Monday from Eurostat, the European Union`s statistics agency, showed imports on a seasonally-adjusted basis fell 2.1% in February from January, while exports inched up 0.1%. The steep fall in demand for goods inside the bloc prompted its trade balance--the difference between imports and exports--to show a surplus of 10.4 billion euros ($ 13.6 billion), the biggest for any February since 2004. In 2012, the surplus for February was EUR1.3 billion.
Consumer demand in the euro zone has been suppressed as the fiscal crisis has spurred governments to rein in spending and raise taxes, damping economic activity and causing job losses to rise. With households, businesses and governments all reluctant to spend, euro-zone leaders have pinned hopes on exports to other countries to pick up the slack and fuel a recovery. But exports have faltered due to weak growth and demand in some of the bloc`s main export markets.
The lack of prospective sources of growth for the euro zone led the European Commission, the EU`s executive arm, to predict in February that the economy will shrink 0.3% this year.... http://t.in.com/fyQb
Copper has breached its 2011 support and is heading down. In fact all commodities seem to be breaking strong supports. A depression is predicted for Europe. Now how will it translate for India? Cheap commodities are great and we can build our infrastructure but a depression or even continuing recession in Europe could hit US, China and rest of the world economy and can impact money flowing into India. So falling commodity prices need not help Indian stock market -- unless India is "rediscovered" by global investors as the only economy that benefits from a global recession.
Strange, unrealistic bull markets can develop and surge without fundamentals, from the ashes of despair. Like the technology boom of 1999. I am not predicting one in India. But watch out for high volumes. if institutions are piling into India even as the rest of the world falls to pieces, we should not wait to pitch in.
@Karvarnnan : UM is correct. We should invest some of our invest able surplus to MFs, but I believe, not in ETFs. Indian Index is not such trustworthy.
Investing in dynamic Bind Funds (DEbt)may yield higher return than Bank FDs now. I prefer SBI Dy Bond Fund (G).
Now, as Midcap index corrected a lot, HDFC Midcap Opp and SBI Emering Biz Fund may be considered also.
Very good board on MMB - MF Investment Help (in Personal Fin.)
yes, one should invest their surplus in markets, either way. But, that should be surplus. G-20 meetings note in the second week of last month, do suggest Monetary policy needs to be tightened or atleast should be just accomadative not slack to give lee way for fiscal consolidation. We will be into wider trouble, if 2013 turns out to be another rainless, painfully unimplemented infra policy year like the couple of years that went by.
KK Inc., may not be in much better situation given the meek speculation FII`s has unleashed. Positional trades are going to be nightmare(if i have understood KK ji rightly).
the way global events are taking tolls, otherwise panning out - there seem to be no solutions but to make use of fiscal cliffs and country bankruptcy.
There could be currency wars - though many just squeak-out and consider mostly as joke. The world unfortunately becoming more uncertain than any one can fore see. Specially after going through many of the UM`s previous posts over a year and half, i felt that the situations and policy scenarios that existed and the probable solutions that were thought off were no more practical. Our budget is the finest example. Its not that PC wanted to make this one as the best vote-get budget, but he can`t, for any such move would have disastrous consequences on the common public. This govt again under PC dashed with RBI for the growth forecast and their own survey stated what RBI said - 5 percent growth.
Our economy and perception(call it sentiment if someone wish so) are slowly turning from "we are better" to "we were better". Companies, however good are undergoing lesser investment opportunities, shrinking profits, increasing raw material costs, and above all loss of market if they didn`t survive with their existing products in the market(fear of taken over by outsiders). Here, no company is safe. The budget squeeze is going all around, sooner or later we will be witnessing unexpected inflation ditching all our hopes globally.
i think stock selection should be very aggressively thought out one and certainly with stop loss at comfortable zones.