"Hum jahan khade hote hai line wahi se shuru hoti hai".Wondering Why I Said this line.
Our Mkt has hardly moved 100+ Points after Commodity crash.With so much improvement in Macros and expectation of rate cut,the Nifty has min 10% upside and Max of 20% from here ,which will life time high.Commodity Crash and Rate cut will increase Margins of companies.FY14 will be one of the best result year as we come out of 4 yrs of margin contraction.Its just a lack of Confidence and Sentiment in Mkt. Generally Retail investor Confidence and Sentiment comes back when Mkt has already hit life time high and as usual Missed the BUS. Finanlly Be first in investing and say the first line.
These are assumption,so take your own decision on investment
LONDON--Imports of goods into the 17 nations that use the euro fell in February and exports stagnated, the latest indication of poor consumer and business demand within and without the crisis-hit currency bloc that could prevent its economy from rebounding this year.
Trade figures Monday from Eurostat, the European Union`s statistics agency, showed imports on a seasonally-adjusted basis fell 2.1% in February from January, while exports inched up 0.1%. The steep fall in demand for goods inside the bloc prompted its trade balance--the difference between imports and exports--to show a surplus of 10.4 billion euros ($ 13.6 billion), the biggest for any February since 2004. In 2012, the surplus for February was EUR1.3 billion.
Consumer demand in the euro zone has been suppressed as the fiscal crisis has spurred governments to rein in spending and raise taxes, damping economic activity and causing job losses to rise. With households, businesses and governments all reluctant to spend, euro-zone leaders have pinned hopes on exports to other countries to pick up the slack and fuel a recovery. But exports have faltered due to weak growth and demand in some of the bloc`s main export markets.
The lack of prospective sources of growth for the euro zone led the European Commission, the EU`s executive arm, to predict in February that the economy will shrink 0.3% this year.... http://t.in.com/fyQb
Copper has breached its 2011 support and is heading down. In fact all commodities seem to be breaking strong supports. A depression is predicted for Europe. Now how will it translate for India? Cheap commodities are great and we can build our infrastructure but a depression or even continuing recession in Europe could hit US, China and rest of the world economy and can impact money flowing into India. So falling commodity prices need not help Indian stock market -- unless India is "rediscovered" by global investors as the only economy that benefits from a global recession.
Strange, unrealistic bull markets can develop and surge without fundamentals, from the ashes of despair. Like the technology boom of 1999. I am not predicting one in India. But watch out for high volumes. if institutions are piling into India even as the rest of the world falls to pieces, we should not wait to pitch in.
Though Apple is in complete bear territory, I started with it because technically, I consider it to be the pinnacle of herd behavior and fundamentally, the best business to own. The volume is so huge that it is like almost the whole world trades on Apple. So, there is bound to be herd behavioral and that is where Elliot Wave theory is good at.
There won`t be any calls given. The blog is not meant for outright foolish calls as you see those jokers on TV. The blog is meant to analyst Chart patterns, Technical levels, Elliot Waves and using all these it would consider all the scenarios: Bearish, bullish, PROBABLE.
I actually prefer a mix of both US and India stocks. I trade where the trend is strong. Currently, the trend is India and in a few weeks or may be next week, US should start correcting ant S&P should target 1420. By that time, Indian markets should have corrected to 5500/5600.