Agree. But it also has the problem of some body trying to pin down its prices. Hence, till the purpose of manipulators is served, the price may remain subdued.
I disagree Kalpataru! I guess the most active boarder on this stock are holding SRF for very long. But it`s the stock which is not moving, thus forcing people (the so called weaker hands), who are here to make money, to move out of the stock. Unless the stock start moving upward, it will not win faith of anyone!
BTW, I initially bought this stock believing in the growth story. I had hoped to make good money through stock price escalation. But now am in this stock for Dividend Yield. And I believe the dividend yield will continue to grow over a period of time.
Why should we doubt at all? Though SRF is out of F & O counter, there are other modus operandis like circular trading etc. to keep the share price under check.At the current price of CER, ie, Eu.12.5 SRF can generate post tax revenue of around Rs.200 Crores from 3.8Million CERs annually. Where as SRF has concluded many forward contracts for CERs, the rate will be attractive considering that the contracts could be at the sellers risk. Reveue from 3.8 M CERs at the current rate of Eu. 12.5 will generate an annualised EPS of around Rs.33 ( irrespective of the present fluidity of accounting of stock of CERs held) in addition to a conservative minimum EPS of Rs. 7 from core business ( EPS before generation of CER income was Rs.9.31), will generate an annualised EPS of Rs.40. Present sectoral PE being 9, reasonable value could be around Rs.360 which might improve with Higher EPS and higher PE value.
Share price movement of SRF, especially after April, 2006 was without any rationale. The journey was like a snail climbing a wall, two steps forward, then 3 steps backward. Few explained that the Core business is not doing well, some others explained that the euphoria of carbon credit has gone and the CER income is only temporary. Be that it may; is an annual income of Rs.200 Cr ( actual figure could be much higher ) and Rs.2000 for a 10 yrs. period from CERs has no value or significance as it is stamped as non core business or temporary income?
I don`t think no one will disagree with me when I say that Rs.2000 is a very huge amount by any standards and a windfall profit with out doing any additional effort or any substantial or major investment which could be utilized for modernisation of existing plants, expansion, setting up of new ventures, new acquisitions etc. Additional investment was only around Rs.12 Cr. for the construction of the incerination plant. HFC-23 which is incinerated is a by-product from the manufacture HCFC-22. Incerination expenses include expenses for power, fuel etc. In spite of all these, why SRF continues to be a laggard from April, 2006 even during the boom time.
When we examine the reasons for this share not catching up with its reasonable valuations,it is not out of place to anlyse the reasons for the market to allow higher value for a share. Among other reasons, they include
1. Consistency in performance of the Co.
2. Transparency in all areas of operation of the Co.
3. A good communication system with the public.
4. A competant Manangement.
5. Confidence of the ivestors in the Management/Promoters
5. Sharing of profits with the investors.
6. Visibility of future earnings.
( Co. has not made any presentation reg. their future projects and their profitability to enable the leading Analysts to cover the stock )
I feel that SRF is not upto the standard in r/o points 2,3,5&6. A share will sttract higher PE value only when the expetations of futre earnings are high for which necessary information should be made available to the market by the Manangement. Management should come out with their concrete plans and the effects on profitablity and not in peace meal thru occassional press reports. Further the past track record of the Promoters in the field of corporate governance may be looming large over the investors.
Finally, imagine - replace
I agree with you. Management`s sincerity is most important in determining the share price. One more reason the share price is subdued is liquidity in this counter. Only 1-2lakh share average daily volume will not attract any serious buyers.
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