Karvy Stock Broking has maintained underperformer rating on Mercator Lines with a target price of Rs 38 in its report dated October 30, 2009. The share was quoting at Rs 46.75, down Rs 1.4, or 2.91%.
"Mercator Lines (consolidated) reported revenue decline of 37.4% YoY (QoQ decline of 9.1%) to Rs 4.06 billion in Q2FY10. The revenue from coal mining business increased by 45% on QoQ basis to Rs 618.9 million with sale of 0.26 million mt during the quarter. The revenue was in line with our expectations of Rs 4.04 billion. The company reported loss of Rs 194 million in Q2FY10 as compared to profits of Rs 1.87 billion in Q2FY09. The profits were below our expectation of Rs 399 million. Considering significant decline in freight rates and lower earnings, we maintain our valuation to 30% discount to NAV with target price of Rs 38. We are changing our rating from Sell to Underperformer considering 25% decline in stock price since our last update in 21 October 2009, "says Karvy Stock Broking.
Sorry ! I dont share your views. Mercator will perform in coming quarters as BDI is getting better.
Dry Bulk Shipping Rates - November 3, 2009 - BDI Up 4 Straight Days
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) - 3247 Up 62
Baltic Cape Index (BCI) - 5394 Up 138
Index (BPI ) - 3279 Up 69
Supramax Index (BSI) - 1813 Flat
export is recovering gradually month on month basis. check the government export data where negative number is slowly going down. Mercator will give good return till June10 when fleet movement will be higher side as well as coal price will go up. Target 150/-
I dont want to predict the price on F&O expiry. My assumption is based on enhanced earning of Mercator in the comming quarters as world recovery is insihgt. Baltic Dry Index is a leading economic indicator & it indicates future trend of the stock market. Once can think of Baltic index as when the index rises Mercretor is going to UP and vice versa. And BDI index will be soaring again !!!
Mercator may go down to mid 30s level but that will be a one off decline. It is diversifying fast and this expenditure has resulted in one time loss in Q2. Stock is stable and will head to stabilise in 62-67 range in 3 months or by end of FY10. I am holding at 47 and will buy more if it falls below 40.
Well, it has been there a few months ago. Even I don`t expect it to stay below 40 for any extended period but a one off fall cannot be ruled out. If it happens, that will be a time to buy.
Well, I am already holding the stock at 47. To get a decent average down, my next purchase must be below 40 otherwise I will continue to hold as at present. For fresh investors present time is suitable to enter.
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