Good view chandra. My 5 stars for this. I really wonder whether u r the same guy who advised to buy stock like geodesic. I doubt u even hold it. I mean u sound here too smart to hold (even buy) something like geo. Good luck if u really hold geo and god bless!
And imports increase dramatically whenever Rupee touches 50 levels......a level which may take a few more months to materialise or perhaps more than a year ! Nobody knew Rupee will go down to 68 levels , not even renowned currency experts !!! And here we are predicting 50 levels ?
And as elections near , you will see all ministers going back to their constituencies.....policy and reforms will take a back seat....As regards to exports being viable at 50 , we had good exports even when rupee was 45 to a dollar.......BIG question is demand from major export markets ??? And how competitive we are ?? These questions will not find answers overnight , these are time consuming riddles to solve !
We will have to wait for a stable regime.......at least I don`t expect miracles from present regime !
Textiles and Garment exports may not give much results , based on following :
Europe , USA , MEA - All major garment export markets are struggling to come out of economic downturn....
Indian garment exporters cannot compete with China , Taiwan , Bangladesh due to high labour cost......government can only provide export benefits but cannot provide these exporters with cheap labour......and moreover consumer spend on Garments comes down during recessionary environment.
I said IT , Agriculture and Pharma because these are our strengths.......also , these sectors are mostly insulated from economic downtrend....except perhaps IT where major clients try to reduce their IT spend.
As for overnight solutions , nothing is possible in the short term.......I agree....policies of the present regime have literally destroyed manufacturing industry over the last 4 years and try as hard as they may , short - term solutions are not possible !
Some one close to me present clothes purchased in US. They were made in Bangladesh and Indonesia. So you see our competitors clearly. They may be poorer countries but they are a determined lot. We too have people struggling for work. Unfortunately, government is yet to reach out to them, employ them to better the nation for mutual benefit. We can, if we are serious, in textiles.
Rupee strength does not come above congress` political priorities. We should not forget that increase in fuel prices is warranted because of food bill. so the government is choosing where to hurt the public and where to please. It is a big time gamble. We can talk about rupee with confidence, only after the elections.
1. Agriculture: Can not be boosted overnight. It needs a change in policy and agri-revolution, empowerment of villages, removal of middlemen. so NOT FOR SHORT TERM.
2. Pharma: Possible. Lot of hurdles will be there. But government can still do a lot in this sector.
3. IT: Not much scope in the short term. Existing companies are struggling to survive except for the top few. I wonder if government could do something here w.r.t.SHORT TERM BOOST.
4. Garments/Textile: I think this is a very potential area even for short term point of view. Government`s contribution here can work wonders. I think we have the right set up for exports.